Geopolitical and socioeconomic challenges remain at the forefront of daily headlines. These issues have taken a heavy toll on investor sentiment the past several years. While markets are usually driven by a mix of expectations and current conditions, we’ve never encountered such an influence of investor sentiment upon economic expectations. In today’s complex world, distinguishing coincidence from causality is becoming more challenging. To attract attention, forecasters must provide uniquely compelling insights, have an exceptional reputation, or be very provocative. The convergence of cheap access to information combined with sophisticated data mining tools and increased computing power has increased reliance on empirically-derived conclusions. These tools are very effective used in the right way, but intuitive fundamental relationships are now being contested more often by potentially spurious correlations. The leveraging of empirical analysis can more easily and convincingly reinforce misguided beliefs in this unprecedented age of contrived reason, swayed by behavioral biases. This isn’t the first time The World Turned Upside Down, and it won’t be the last. Thus, we are hesitant to embrace the notion that this time is different. Read more in this downloadable article.