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September 08, 2014

Fannie housing survey supports forecast downgrade

Fannie Mae's August monthly housing survey reveals that consumers' attitudes toward the housing market "continued to soften," providing a glimpse of what is behind the entity's recent downgrade of its 2015 housing forecast.

The survey noted that "despite ongoing improvements in the labor market this year, consumers' views on their income trend during the past 12 months appear to be more bearish."

"Wage growth has been stubbornly low even in the midst of this year's surge in job growth," NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said. "Various measures of consumer confidence have been increasing, but that's due mainly to strength in the stock market. If mortgage rates increase as expected next year, continued slow income growth could be a large headwind for the housing market in 2015."

Fannie Mae's housing survey also found that the number of consumers who said now is a good time to buy a home fell for the second consecutive month – down 6 percentage points since June to 64 percent – "tying the all-time survey low," the report said.

Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan gave NAFCU Annual Conference attendees his economic forecast this July in Las Vegas. CNBC highlighted the downgrading of his forecast for the housing market in a report last week.