Newsroom
November 25, 2015
3Q GDP revised up to 2.1%
The U.S. economy grew by 2.1 percent in the third quarter, higher than the 1.5 percent growth initially reported, according to the Commerce Department's second estimate of gross domestic product.
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said the revised GDP growth figure is still down from second-quarter growth of 3.9 percent.
Some of the upward revision to third-quarter growth from the first to second estimate came from higher inventory accumulation, which lowers expected growth for the fourth quarter, Long noted in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Despite the revision, inventory was still a major drag to growth in the third quarter," he said.
Long said net exports were lower than previously estimated and, after the revision, subtracted 0.22 percent from GDP growth. Business investment was stronger than initially estimated despite a 3.2 percent decrease in corporate profits from the second quarter.
"Overall, the revised GDP report maintains the view that the economy is in a moderate growth phase, which is strong enough to support a rate increase by the Fed in December," he said.
Core personal consumption expenditure inflation (excluding food and energy), the Fed's preferred inflation metric, was estimated at 1.3 percent annualized for the third quarter, which is in line with year-over-year growth. Inflation remains well below the Fed's target of 2 percent.
Real gross domestic income increased 3.1 percent in the third quarter compared to an increase of 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Nominal corporate profits from current production were $1,785.8 billion in the third quarter, down from $1,844.6 billion in the second quarter.
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said the revised GDP growth figure is still down from second-quarter growth of 3.9 percent.
Some of the upward revision to third-quarter growth from the first to second estimate came from higher inventory accumulation, which lowers expected growth for the fourth quarter, Long noted in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Despite the revision, inventory was still a major drag to growth in the third quarter," he said.
Long said net exports were lower than previously estimated and, after the revision, subtracted 0.22 percent from GDP growth. Business investment was stronger than initially estimated despite a 3.2 percent decrease in corporate profits from the second quarter.
"Overall, the revised GDP report maintains the view that the economy is in a moderate growth phase, which is strong enough to support a rate increase by the Fed in December," he said.
Core personal consumption expenditure inflation (excluding food and energy), the Fed's preferred inflation metric, was estimated at 1.3 percent annualized for the third quarter, which is in line with year-over-year growth. Inflation remains well below the Fed's target of 2 percent.
Real gross domestic income increased 3.1 percent in the third quarter compared to an increase of 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Nominal corporate profits from current production were $1,785.8 billion in the third quarter, down from $1,844.6 billion in the second quarter.
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