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November 17, 2015

Inflation marker up 1.3% in October

Core personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation grew by 1.3 percent, year-over-year, in October, which NAFCU Research Assistant Yun Cohen believes will give the Federal Reserve confidence that inflation will continue to rise.

Core PCE inflation is the Fed's preferred inflation marker, Cohen said in a Macro Data Flash Tuesday on the latest consumer price index data.

Cohen noted that 1.3 percent is still below the Fed's 2 percent target. "However," she wrote, "the drag from lower energy prices eased somewhat in October while the latest employment report showed a significant increase in wages. The modest rise in inflation in October could give the Federal Reserve more confidence that inflation will firm in the near future."

Overall consumer prices increased 0.2 percent in October after two months of decline. The overall CPI increased 0.1 percent in October, after no change in September.

Energy prices increased 0.3 percent after a 4.7 percent decrease in September, and food prices increased 0.1 percent after a 0.4 percent increase in September. Energy prices are down 17.3 percent from last year, and food prices are up 1.6 percent year-over-year.