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August 31, 2015

Fed at Jackson Hole: Rate increase still planned

Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer sent the message that plans for an interest rate increase this year are still on, during the Kansas City Federal Reserve's annual retreat in Jackson Hole, Wyo.

Fed Chair Janet Yellen did not attend this year's retreat.

During a panel on inflation dynamics, Fischer said, "There is good reason to believe that inflation will move higher as the forces holding down inflation dissipate further." Observers told Bloomberg they believe his comments leave the possibility of a rate increase this month open – when the Federal Open Market Committee meets in Washington on Sept. 16-17.

NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said, "It seems clear that the Fed is eyeing 2015 for liftoff, but whether that is September or December remains unclear. To that end, the August employment report will be watched closely, but market behavior between now and mid-September is probably more important."

Long has said that the recent plunge in the stock market reduced the chances of liftoff in September, but that positive developments since that time, both in terms of incoming economic readings and a market rebound, mean that September remains a distinct possibility.