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August 29, 2016
Fed's Fischer suggests two rate hikes this year
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer suggested that Fed Chair Janet Yellen's remarks on the economy last week indicate the probability of two interest rate hikes this year, beginning in September.
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long agreed that chances of a rate hike are increasing for September, but did not agree that two rate hikes are likely.
"While the likelihood of two rate hikes this year remains low, the prospect for a September move is gaining traction," Long said. "Friday's employment figures will be telling, and a strong number in the area of 200,000 jobs added would likely presage a rate hike at the committee's September meeting."
When asked whether to anticipate a rate hike in September and more than one overall this year, Fischer told CNBC last week: "I think what the chair said today was consistent with answering yes to both of your questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data."
Yellen had spoken optimistically about the economy earlier that day at the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
"In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months," she said.
However, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated over the weekend they did not believe two rate hikes were likely this year. Bullard said he "could support" a September hike, but he told The Wall Street Journal: "I'm talking about one increase and no planned increases after that." Lockhart also told WSJ that he "wouldn't take" Fischer's position.
The FOMC's next two-day meeting is set for Sept. 20-21.
The Fed's last rate action was in December 2015, when it raised the federal funds target rate increase a quarter point to a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent.
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long agreed that chances of a rate hike are increasing for September, but did not agree that two rate hikes are likely.
"While the likelihood of two rate hikes this year remains low, the prospect for a September move is gaining traction," Long said. "Friday's employment figures will be telling, and a strong number in the area of 200,000 jobs added would likely presage a rate hike at the committee's September meeting."
When asked whether to anticipate a rate hike in September and more than one overall this year, Fischer told CNBC last week: "I think what the chair said today was consistent with answering yes to both of your questions, but these are not things we know until we see the data."
Yellen had spoken optimistically about the economy earlier that day at the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo.
"In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months," she said.
However, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard indicated over the weekend they did not believe two rate hikes were likely this year. Bullard said he "could support" a September hike, but he told The Wall Street Journal: "I'm talking about one increase and no planned increases after that." Lockhart also told WSJ that he "wouldn't take" Fischer's position.
The FOMC's next two-day meeting is set for Sept. 20-21.
The Fed's last rate action was in December 2015, when it raised the federal funds target rate increase a quarter point to a range of 0.25 percent to 0.5 percent.
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