Newsroom
July 19, 2016
WSJ: Some at Fed see September rate hike
Some Federal Reserve officials believe an interest rate increase is possible as early as September, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The Journal cited the stabilization of markets after the upheaval of the U.K. Brexit vote and a positive June jobs report as reasons some Fed officials are feeling more optimistic.
"Many Fed officials have said they can be patient before raising rates again, meaning a July move is highly unlikely," the paper wrote. "But new rounds of strong economic data – particularly on hiring or an uptick in inflation – could increase their sense of urgency in the months after their meeting next week."
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long noted that more delays are still possible.
"We have seen Fed officials lay the groundwork for a rate hike before, only to back off when events like China devaluing its currency or Brexit led to market disruptions," Long said. "While a number of economic headwinds have abated recently and certain officials are undoubtedly considering a rate hike as early as September, one gets the sense that even the slightest wobble between now and then would be enough to justify a delay.
"With that in mind, December still looks to be the most likely target if the Fed does indeed raise rates this year," he continued.
Long also noted that futures company CME Group's assessment of the likelihood of a rate hike in September stands at 18 percent; it cites a 45 percent likelihood of a December increase.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart recently noted that he "wouldn't rule out as many as two" rate hikes this year.
The Journal cited the stabilization of markets after the upheaval of the U.K. Brexit vote and a positive June jobs report as reasons some Fed officials are feeling more optimistic.
"Many Fed officials have said they can be patient before raising rates again, meaning a July move is highly unlikely," the paper wrote. "But new rounds of strong economic data – particularly on hiring or an uptick in inflation – could increase their sense of urgency in the months after their meeting next week."
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long noted that more delays are still possible.
"We have seen Fed officials lay the groundwork for a rate hike before, only to back off when events like China devaluing its currency or Brexit led to market disruptions," Long said. "While a number of economic headwinds have abated recently and certain officials are undoubtedly considering a rate hike as early as September, one gets the sense that even the slightest wobble between now and then would be enough to justify a delay.
"With that in mind, December still looks to be the most likely target if the Fed does indeed raise rates this year," he continued.
Long also noted that futures company CME Group's assessment of the likelihood of a rate hike in September stands at 18 percent; it cites a 45 percent likelihood of a December increase.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart recently noted that he "wouldn't rule out as many as two" rate hikes this year.
Share This
Related Resources
Resiliency In Your Incident Response Plan
Cybersecurity
preferred partner
DefenseStorm
Blog Post
The Bottom Line on Insurance Tracking and Collateral Protection
Strategy
preferred partner
Allied Solutions
Blog Post
Add to Calendar 2024-04-15 09:00:00 2024-04-15 09:00:00 Mergers and Acquisitions: Unifying Two Different Executive Total Compensation and Benefits Programs Listen On: Key Takeaways: [03:50] With the merger of a smaller credit union into a larger one you are really only dealing with integrating staff into the larger credit union. [05:53] When working with a merger of equals we start with a deep dive into the executive compensation and benefits of each organization. [09:09] If your current executive benefits provider doesn’t conduct regular plan evaluations, consider having a plan audit anyway. [13:46] Don’t overpay for these things if you don’t have to. When you have more options available that means the cost is more appropriate. [17:11] It is in a unified organization’s best interest to do tier timelines where we look at your top executives who are critical to the unified organization’s success today and then slowly add in the next levels. Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Mergers and Acquisitions: Unifying Two Different Executive Total Compensation and Benefits Programs
preferred partner
Gallagher
Podcast
Add to Calendar 2024-04-11 14:00:00 2024-04-11 14:00:00 Regulation E: Impacts Across Your Institution Dive into regulatory excellence with, Regulation E: Impacts Across Your Institution. This webinar is tailored to empower you with the knowledge and strategies necessary to effectively implement the Electronic Funds Transfer Act (EFTA) and Regulation E within your operations. You’ll explore how to apply Regulation E across various business areas to ensure compliance obligations are met with precision. Key Takeaways Learn the basics of EFTA and Regulation E Understand how to apply Regulation E at your organization to detect processes and transactions that require Regulation E compliance Discover how Regulation E may apply to a large breath of areas in your institutions and functions for which you may rely on third-party vendors Review recent enforcement activity for non-compliance with EFTA and Regulation E Register Now $295 Members | $395 Nonmembers(Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until April 11, 2025Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend NCCOs NCRMs Compliance and risk titles Education Credits NCCOs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCRMs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Regulation E: Impacts Across Your Institution
Credits: NCCO, NCRM
Webinar
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.