Newsroom
May 27, 2016
GDP 1Q data revised upward to 0.8%
The U.S. economy grew an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in the first quarter due to higher estimates for residential investment, inventories and net exports, according to the Commerce Department's second estimate of growth for the period.
"While first-quarter GDP remained low despite the upward revision, there are a number of reasons to anticipate a rebound in the second quarter," NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report Friday. "Incoming data has been noticeably stronger, the drags from low oil prices and a strong dollar were less than previously estimated, and there is still a possibility that the government's seasonal adjustment continues to underestimate GDP in the first quarter while boosting it in subsequent quarters."
Consumer spending increased 1.9 percent and government spending increased 1.2 percent, according to the data, and residential investment increased a revised 17.1 percent. Nonresidential investment decreased 6.2 percent, a larger drop than initially estimated. However, drags from inventory accumulation ($69.6 billion) and net exports (-$561.2 billion) were smaller than initially thought.
Contributions to growth of real GDP came from gains in personal consumption expenditures (1.29 percent), residential investment (0.56 percent) and government spending (0.20 percent). Drags on growth came from nonresidential investment (-0.81 percent), changes in net exports (-0.21 percent) and changes in private inventories (-0.20 percent).
Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy), the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased from 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 2.1 percent in the first quarter. Overall PCE inflation was 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the same as the fourth quarter.
"Overall, this is another in a string of positive data releases, which will provide plenty of ammunition for the Fed to raise rates no later than July," Long added.
Long's comments on this report were also featured in CNN Money on Friday.
"While first-quarter GDP remained low despite the upward revision, there are a number of reasons to anticipate a rebound in the second quarter," NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report Friday. "Incoming data has been noticeably stronger, the drags from low oil prices and a strong dollar were less than previously estimated, and there is still a possibility that the government's seasonal adjustment continues to underestimate GDP in the first quarter while boosting it in subsequent quarters."
Consumer spending increased 1.9 percent and government spending increased 1.2 percent, according to the data, and residential investment increased a revised 17.1 percent. Nonresidential investment decreased 6.2 percent, a larger drop than initially estimated. However, drags from inventory accumulation ($69.6 billion) and net exports (-$561.2 billion) were smaller than initially thought.
Contributions to growth of real GDP came from gains in personal consumption expenditures (1.29 percent), residential investment (0.56 percent) and government spending (0.20 percent). Drags on growth came from nonresidential investment (-0.81 percent), changes in net exports (-0.21 percent) and changes in private inventories (-0.20 percent).
Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy), the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased from 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 2.1 percent in the first quarter. Overall PCE inflation was 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the same as the fourth quarter.
"Overall, this is another in a string of positive data releases, which will provide plenty of ammunition for the Fed to raise rates no later than July," Long added.
Long's comments on this report were also featured in CNN Money on Friday.
Share This
Related Resources
The Bottom Line on Insurance Tracking and Collateral Protection
Strategy
preferred partner
Allied Solutions
Blog Post
Resiliency In Your Incident Response Plan
Cybersecurity
preferred partner
DefenseStorm
Blog Post
Add to Calendar 2024-04-15 09:00:00 2024-04-15 09:00:00 Mergers and Acquisitions: Unifying Two Different Executive Total Compensation and Benefits Programs Listen On: Key Takeaways: [03:50] With the merger of a smaller credit union into a larger one you are really only dealing with integrating staff into the larger credit union. [05:53] When working with a merger of equals we start with a deep dive into the executive compensation and benefits of each organization. [09:09] If your current executive benefits provider doesn’t conduct regular plan evaluations, consider having a plan audit anyway. [13:46] Don’t overpay for these things if you don’t have to. When you have more options available that means the cost is more appropriate. [17:11] It is in a unified organization’s best interest to do tier timelines where we look at your top executives who are critical to the unified organization’s success today and then slowly add in the next levels. Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Mergers and Acquisitions: Unifying Two Different Executive Total Compensation and Benefits Programs
preferred partner
Gallagher
Podcast
Add to Calendar 2024-04-11 14:00:00 2024-04-11 14:00:00 Regulation E: Impacts Across Your Institution Dive into regulatory excellence with, Regulation E: Impacts Across Your Institution. This webinar is tailored to empower you with the knowledge and strategies necessary to effectively implement the Electronic Funds Transfer Act (EFTA) and Regulation E within your operations. You’ll explore how to apply Regulation E across various business areas to ensure compliance obligations are met with precision. Key Takeaways Learn the basics of EFTA and Regulation E Understand how to apply Regulation E at your organization to detect processes and transactions that require Regulation E compliance Discover how Regulation E may apply to a large breath of areas in your institutions and functions for which you may rely on third-party vendors Review recent enforcement activity for non-compliance with EFTA and Regulation E Register Now $295 Members | $395 Nonmembers(Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until April 11, 2025Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend NCCOs NCRMs Compliance and risk titles Education Credits NCCOs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCRMs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Regulation E: Impacts Across Your Institution
Credits: NCCO, NCRM
Webinar
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.