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May 27, 2016

GDP 1Q data revised upward to 0.8%

The U.S. economy grew an upwardly revised 0.8 percent in the first quarter due to higher estimates for residential investment, inventories and net exports, according to the Commerce Department's second estimate of growth for the period.

"While first-quarter GDP remained low despite the upward revision, there are a number of reasons to anticipate a rebound in the second quarter," NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report Friday. "Incoming data has been noticeably stronger, the drags from low oil prices and a strong dollar were less than previously estimated, and there is still a possibility that the government's seasonal adjustment continues to underestimate GDP in the first quarter while boosting it in subsequent quarters."

Consumer spending increased 1.9 percent and government spending increased 1.2 percent, according to the data, and residential investment increased a revised 17.1 percent. Nonresidential investment decreased 6.2 percent, a larger drop than initially estimated. However, drags from inventory accumulation ($69.6 billion) and net exports (-$561.2 billion) were smaller than initially thought.

Contributions to growth of real GDP came from gains in personal consumption expenditures (1.29 percent), residential investment (0.56 percent) and government spending (0.20 percent). Drags on growth came from nonresidential investment (-0.81 percent), changes in net exports (-0.21 percent) and changes in private inventories (-0.20 percent).

Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy), the Fed's preferred inflation metric, increased from 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2015 to 2.1 percent in the first quarter. Overall PCE inflation was 0.3 percent in the first quarter, the same as the fourth quarter.

"Overall, this is another in a string of positive data releases, which will provide plenty of ammunition for the Fed to raise rates no later than July," Long added.

Long's comments on this report were also featured in CNN Money on Friday.