Energy price gains lead November's 0.4% CPI growth

December 13, 2017

Energy price gains lead November's 0.4% CPI growth

Overall consumer prices increased 0.4 percent in November. That included a 3.9 percent increase in energy prices, which "accounted for about three-fourths of the headline gains," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long.

"Core inflation, on the other hand, grew at a more sluggish pace," Long said in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Growth was weighed down by substantial declines of apparel prices and airline fares. The former saw a 1.3 percent drop in November; its largest decrease since 1998."

Consumer prices saw a 0.1 percent increase in October. For the 12-month period, the overall consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.2 percent, after showing 2 percent growth in October.

Data published Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics found that core prices (excluding food and energy costs) increased 0.1 percent in November compared with the previous month. Year-over-year core CPI growth edged down to 1.7 percent.

From a year ago, energy prices were up 9.5 percent and food prices were up 1.4 percent.

Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure, grew 1.6 percent year over year (seasonally adjusted) in October. PCE inflation has been below the Fed's 2 percent target since February.

"Tax reform could provide support for price growth in the coming year," Long said. "That possibility notwithstanding, Fed officials have begun to express doubts as to the likelihood that inflation will return to target in the near future, which could result in a slower pace to monetary policy tightening."

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