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January 18, 2017

CPI up 0.3% in December

The consumer price index rose 0.3 percent in December and increased 2.1 percent year-over-year – the highest rate since mid-2014, according to data reported Wednesday and analyzed in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.

"The increase was driven by higher gasoline prices, rents and medical care costs," NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long wrote. "Meanwhile, there has been little inflationary pressure for food, and prices for apparel and appliances have declined."

Energy prices increased 1.5 percent in December and were up 5.4 percent year-over-year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Food prices remained flat for the sixth month and were down 0.2 percent year-over-year, marking the fourth month of year-over-year decreases.

The Federal Reserve's preferred marker for inflation, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, increased 1.4 percent in November – still less than the Fed's 2 percent inflation target.

"President-elect Trump's fiscal stimulus and tariff proposals could put upward pressure on inflation later this year. Such a scenario would force the Fed's hand and result in a more rapid pace of interest rate hikes," wrote Long.