Educational Resources

• 2Q 2013 NIFCU$ Perspectives and Commentary (Article)
  The first quarter of 2013 began with the clearing of muddy waters. After years of accommodative fiscal policy and ballooning deficits, clarity was finally achieved when a program to raise taxes and cut spending was put in place. The tax hike was intended to reduce excessive debt and improve the long-term prognosis for the US economy. The stock market took a particular liking to this plan, as evidenced by the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching record-setting levels as the quarter came to a close.
• NIFCU$ Market Commentary (First Quarter 2013)
  After just avoiding the “fiscal cliff” as we entered 2013, the U.S. economy has so far defied the odds to grow at a faster pace than first projected. Employment now appears to be increasing steadily, housing is picking up sharply, and the broader stock market has rallied strongly since January. Even the implementation of the dreaded budget “sequestration” on March 1st has not derailed the recovery.
• 1Q 2013 NIFCU$ Perspectives and Commentary (Article)
  The fourth quarter of 2012 brought an abundance of angst and speculation surrounding how, and when, Congress might resolve its ongoing battle over fiscal policy. As investors worried about the impact of the tax and spending provisions the Budget Control Act of 2011 would have on an already fragile economy, Congress showed little inclination to reach a bi-partisan compromise. The result was a layer of uncertainty in the financial markets that persisted into the proverbial “eleventh hour.” 
• January 2013 Investment Insights: Fiscal Cliff Averted. Fight to Raise the U.S. Debt Ceiling and Implement Budget Cuts Comes Next (Article)
  While the fiscal cliff deal approved by both the Senate and the House of Congress in the wee hours of January 1, 2013 does avert most of the previously scheduled tax increases, it does not include any provision to raise the debt ceiling, and it defers the scheduled spending cuts for two months. Given the confrontational tone of the negotiations over the last two weeks of 2012, the upcoming negotiation over these key issues could lead to a shutdown of the Federal government by late February or early March.
• 4Q 2012 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
  The last minute deal in the wee hours of January 1st, 2013 to avert going over the “fiscal cliff” dealt with the issue of tax rates, raised Medicare payments to physicians, permanently indexed Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) rates for inflation, and extended for one year the benefits for long-term unemployed individuals. It also deferred the previously mandated across the board budget spending cuts for two months, and did nothing about the need to raise the U.S. debt ceiling which will again be reached sometime between late February and the end of March.
• 2012 Q4 Quarterly Investment Outlook: What Happens After No More Excuses (Article)
  Most agree that our nation is at a critical tipping point. Economic and employment growth has been disappointing relative to potential for several years, so it is not surprising that the economy is the most pressing concern for consumers and business. It is discouraging the U.S. recovery has only managed average growth, particularly given the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus that was believed would bolster housing, employment, and overall GDP growth. Fiscal imbalance is unsustainable, forcing policymakers to decide how best to rein in spending or increase taxes, or both.
• Uncertain Financial Markets Ahead (Article)
  Five years after the onset of the global credit crunch, targeted U.S. short-term interest rates remain near zero and an anemic recovery poses the risk of the country slipping back into recession. Meanwhile, Euro-zone turmoil haunts the financial markets while regulatory burden increases. What’s a credit union manager to do? Here’s what you need to know about the months ahead. This Inside NAFCU Services article from The Federal Credit Union magazine was written by Hillary Elder, director for taxable money market strategies with HighMark Capital Management.
• 3Q 2012 NIFCU$ Quarterly Commentary (Article)
  Confirmation of further impending monetary stimulus followed the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s policy setting meeting on September 13th, providing a temporary boost to both the fixed income and equity markets. Commodities – especially oil, which had responded positively to similar prior rounds of stimulus, are weakening on concerns regarding economic slowdowns in Europe and China.
• The Upcoming U.S. Presidential Election and the Fiscal Cliff (Article)
  

  In November 2011, after months of debate, Congress was unable to arrive at an agreement to gradually reduce the U.S. deficit. As a result, they deferred any decision by implementing a process called sequestration, scheduled to take effect in January 2013. This draconian option was thought sufficient to motivate both political parties to focus on resolving their differences. It was never intended to actually take effect, as it will trigger across- the- board spending cuts of $1.2 trillion over 10 years to both domestic and defense programs. 

• 2012 Q3--Quarterly Investment Outlook: Rationalizing Uncomfortable Choices (Article)
  Economies worldwide have rebounded since the 2008 Financial Crisis, along with rising global equity and tightening credit markets. Even the rebound in earnings growth and profit margins has been remarkable. Yet, the U.S. economic growth hasn’t broken out as hoped, after significant global fiscal and monetary stimulus, including slashing interest rates. Unemployment remains high and volatility has been unnerving for investors. The key question is: What is holding us back and will it continue?
• 2012 Q2 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
  Economic unease and political maneuvering dominated the past quarter. In the United States, the focus was on electioneering, the impending ruling of the Supreme Court on the Obama Presidency’s health care law, and the approaching January 2013 “fiscal cliff.” As the press discussed the looming tax increases and potential spending cuts, businesses and consumers became increasingly nervous and economic activity slowed. Read the full market commentary from NIFCU$ Fund Manager, Hillary Elder.
• June 2012 Investment Highlights: The World Turned Upside Down (Article)
  Geopolitical and socioeconomic challenges remain at the forefront of daily headlines. These issues have taken a heavy toll on investor sentiment the past several years. While markets are usually driven by a mix of expectations and current conditions, we’ve never encountered such an influence of investor sentiment upon economic expectations. In today’s complex world, distinguishing coincidence from causality is becoming more challenging.
• 2012 Q2 Quarterly Investment Outlook: Little Things Add Up (Article)
  While geopolitical and other challenging headlines have continued to capture our attention, many of the significant economic threats enumerated in 2011, have since moderated or been extinguished. Meanwhile, just under the surface, HighMark’s five drivers of potentially exceptional growth are contributing more to economic activity than lackluster U.S. GDP growth suggests, illustrating that many Little Things Add Up over time.
• 2012 Q1 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
  During the quarter, market participants began to give more weight to strengthening economic news, discounting the Fed’s stated commitment to hold short-term interest rates low into 2014.
  
• 2012 Q1 Quarterly Investment Outlook: Are the Nightmares Behind Us? (Article)
  Investors have had to contend with many upsetting concerns over the last year, including geopolitical uncertainty, social unrest, natural disasters, monetary tightening, new regulations, and a U.S. government downgrade. The European Sovereign Debt Crisis was underway for over a year when the worrying Nightmares began compounding in March 2011. These Nightmares have undercut confidence and global growth expectations, which impeded equity returns and drove Treasury yields lower. Uncertainty fueled much higher volatility across equity, bond, currency, and commodity markets.
• 2011 Q4 Market Commentary (Article)
  Although third quarter 2011 growth came in at just +1.5%, the flow of economic news in fourth quarter was surprisingly positive, with equity markets holding their own, and consumer confidence and spending rebounding sharply. Read more from NIFCU$ Fund Manager Hillary Elder in the 2011 Q4 Market Commentary.
• Market Impact from the Super Committee Failure (Article)
  A deal to reduce the federal budget deficit through any combination of cutting government spending and/or raising revenue could not be reached in the “super committee” by the November 23rd 2011 deadline. Initial market reaction to the impasse was negative, but transitory and the longer term concern centers on the reaction of rating agencies and the potential for further downgrade of United States debt by one or more agencies. Read what investment expert Hillary Elder has to say about the impact of the committee's failure and the threat of rating downgrades.
• NIFCU$ Q3 2011 Market Commentary
  Shock waves, natural and man-made, rocked global economies in the first six months of 2011. Economic growth faced headwinds from severe storms, floods, earthquakes, higher oil prices and a manufacturing disruption of the global component supply chain from Japan. Most of those issues have now passed, however the European sovereign and banking sector debt crisis remains unresolved.
• Investment Insights: Standard & Poor's Downgrades U.S. Government: So What Now? (Article)
  Standard & Poor’s (S&P) has downgraded their U.S. Government long-term AAA debt rating to AA+ for the first time since granting it in 1917. While forewarned, it still seems to have taken investors by surprise. The consequences of S&P's U.S. Government downgrade will likely have a greater emotional impact on investor sentiment, exacerbated by the European chaos, than any longer term impact on the economy or fixed income liquidity. Read more from David Goerz, SVP - Chief Investment Officer for HighMark Capital Management, Inc. in this downloadable article.
• 2011 Q3 Quarterly Investment Outlook: Our Demise is Greatly Exaggerated (Article)
  Are America’s best days in the past? We live in an age of tremendous innovation and opportunity that shows no signs of slowing, which has fundamentally lifted our living standards over the last century. However, there remains a nagging sense of anxiety about the future that has cast a long dark shadow over the U.S. economy. We think that with devotion to our nation’s free market principles, companies will be motivated to make innovation routine, and that Our Demise Is Greatly Exaggerated. Read more from David Goerz, SVP - Chief Investment Officer for HighMark Capital Management, Inc. in this downloadable article.
• Raising the U.S. Debt Ceiling and Fiscal Budget Deficit Debate – Summary Thoughts (Article)
  A decision to raise the debt limit, which would allow the Treasury to finance ongoing operations of the federal government, has become linked to decisions about longer-term budget issues, such as reducing government spending commitments and changes to tax policy. Read full investment insights from the National Investment Fund for Credit Unions (NIFCU$).
• 2011 Q2 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
  It appears the U.S. economic recovery hit a soft patch this past quarter. First quarter 2011 GDP declined and there remain concerns about rising inflationary pressures, although not in the area of wages. However, gasoline prices have softened a bit–a small bit of good news for consumers as housing is still struggling. Read more from NIFCU$ Fund Manager, Hillary Elder in this downloadable report.
• Economic Review: What your credit union should do to prepare for changes ahead (Podcast)
  Recent Federal Reserve Board members’ comments, plus improving economic readings, may mean this period of ultra-low interest rates is nearing an end. In this podcast we discuss the current market and economy, what may be coming down the road, and most importantly, what credit unions can be doing to prepare for these probable changes.
• 2011 Q1 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
  Recent Federal Reserve Board member comments, plus improving economic readings, may mean this period of ultra-low interest rates is nearing an end. Higher oil prices have put a damper on consumer sentiment and should affect spending in the second quarter of 2011. Read more from NIFCU$ Fund Manager, Hillary Elder in this downloadable report.
• 2010 Q4 NIFCU$ Market Commentary (Article)
  The upward revision to third quarter growth (+2.6%) and the surprisingly strong trend in consumer spending in the fourth quarter have many economists forecasting stronger economic growth in 2011. Read more from NIFCU$ Fund Manager, Hillary Elder in this downloadable report.
• Economic Outlook: Post Mid-term Elections and Federal Reserve Meeting (Podcast)
  What will the mid-term elections and the most recent Federal Reserve meeting mean for the economy? In this podcast, we meet with Hillary Elder, Vice President and Director for Money Market Strategies with HighMark Capital Management to discuss the transition of political power and its impact on trends in tax policy and regulation.
• Quarterly Investment Outlook - Q3 2010 (Article)
  Strategists and economists can't seem to agree on what the future holds, leaving investors disillusioned about prospects for "normal" returns. Of course, economic growth comparisons to a year ago will grow increasingly difficult to sustain mathematically. However, these are hardly the seeds of a double-dip recession, and we think there are reasons to be hopeful that the second half may be even stronger than the first half of 2010.
• Looking Behind the Global Recovery: Current Economic and Capital Market Outlook (Podcast)
  As we start to look towards a recovering global economy, it may be tough to see where we as credit unions stand in the - hopefully - recovering financial arena. With market volatility on the rise the question is whether we are in the "new normal", or whether the "new normal" even exists. In this podcast we get a sneak peek of a presentation for NAFCU's 2010 CEOs Conference on current economic and capital markets.
• 2010 Economic Trends & Outlook (Article)
  With 2009 almost behind us, The Federal Credit Union Magazine turned to Hillary Elder, vice president and portfolio manager of the National Investment Fund for Credit Unions (NIFCU$), for her outlook on several key indicators as we head into 2010.
• Exploring Hope for the Economy (Recorded Webinar)
  We have assumed the worst for our economy, which did not come to pass. Is it now time to hope for the best? Watch a recorded webinar, Exploring Hope for the Economy, taped June 2009, to learn about developments in the economy and what they may mean for the future.
• 1Q 2009 Economic Outlook (Podcast)
  Each week seems to bring a new government program to address some other part of the financial crisis. Just keeping track of the acronyms is a full-time job! Helping us to better understand what has been going on in the economy and where it is heading is Hillary Elder, Director for Taxable Money Market Strategies with HighMark Capital Management and NIFCU$, the National Investment Fund for Credit Unions.
• 2008 3Q Economic Outlook, with Hillary Elder (Podcast)
  The 3rd quarter of 2008 has been, to say the least, an interesting time. Massive government intervention in capital markets and the private sector in such a short period of time marks a watershed for managing the economy, and carries implications for many years to come. This podcast features an interview with Ms.Hillary Elder, VP and Director of Money Market Strategies with NIFCU$.
• 2008 2Q Economic Outlook, with Hillary Elder (Podcast)
  

  We're in an up and down period right now in the economy - some sectors are up, some are down, and the Fed has taken interest rates down and now might be taking them up. And looming as threats on the horizon are the prospect of inflation, recession, and maybe even stagflation.

• 2008 1Q Economic Outlook - Is that a light at the end of the tunnel? (Podcast)
  The economy has undergone significant change in the fourth quarter of 2007 and the first quarter of 2008, as evidenced by perturbations in the stock market, the rapid response of the Federal Reserve in rate reductions, capital availability and market intervention. This podcast features an interview with an expert in the field who will take a look back at the first quarter of 2008 and try to understand what it all means.

Contact National Investment Fund for Credit Unions (NIFCU$)

Phone | 800-634-6521
http://www.nifcus.com