NAFCU economist: Consumers key in fragile economy
NAFCU's Curt Long attributed the 2 percent economic growth during the second quarter to "a standout performance from U.S. consumers." However, he acknowledged that "there is an undeniable fragility in the economy, and any slippage from the consumer would almost certainly mean a recession is nigh."
"The strong labor market has given rise to some modest wage growth," said Long, NAFCU's chief economist and vice president of research. "That along with still-sturdy balance sheets are allowing for solid spending rates by households. However, that should not mask the numerous drags on the economy at the moment."
Long identified business investment, housing, and trade – and the potential for higher trade tensions as another round of tariffs are set to take effect later this year – as the components that are negatively impacting growth.
"The recovery now hinges entirely upon households and the labor market. As long as people are working, they should keep spending at high enough rates to keep the expansion going," Long concluded.
According to the Commerce Department's final second quarter estimate, overall contributions to real GDP growth came from consumption (+3.03 percent) and government spending (+0.77 percent). Inventory accumulation (-0.91 percent), net exports (-0.68 percent), nonresidential investment (-0.14 percent), and residential investment (-0.11 percent) reduced growth.
The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric, PCE inflation, accelerated from 0.4 percent in the first quarter to 2.4 percent in the second quarter. Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) increased from 1.1 percent to 1.9 percent in the second quarter.
Add to Calendar 2022-09-29 14:00:00 2022-09-29 14:00:00 Coming Soon: CECL This is a deep-dive refresher into the requirements of the Current Expected Credit Losses (CECL) standard. ASC 326 (CECL) is the most significant accounting standard to impact credit unions in many years. Your credit union should be prepared to adopt CECL in 2023 – this will be an effort to make sure you have a sound calculation, appropriate accounting policies and sufficient disclosures. In this Coming Soon: CECL webinar, you’ll get a baseline understanding of the accounting decisions required by the standard, with a focus on those that have tripped up earlier adopters; lessons learned from previous adopters; best practices and key items to consider for your model on a go-forward basis. Key Takeaways Understand requirements of the CECL standard Analyze lessons learned and best practices from previous adopters Evaluate key items to consider for future maintenance of the CECL model(s) Register Now$295 Members | $395 Nonmembers(Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until September 29, 2023.Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend Presidents and CEOs CFOs Accounting titles NCRMs Risk titles Education Credits NCRMs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar CPA credit information is below; recommended 1.0 CPE credits. CPA Certification Credit Information Reviewer: Josie Collins, Senior Associate Director of Education, NAFCU Learning Objectives: See key takeaways Program Level: Basic Prerequisites Needed: None Advance Preparation Needed: None Delivery Method: Group Internet-Based Recommended CPE Credits: 1.0 credits Recommended Field of Study: Accounting – Technical About Our Webinars Our webinars are streamed live from NAFCU headquarters near Washington, DC. Your audio/video feed of the presenters includes presentation slides and downloadable handouts. You can easily submit your questions to the presenters at any time during the live broadcast, with no dialing over the phone! The audio and video stream directly through your computer. Web NAFCU firstname.lastname@example.org America/New_York public
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