August 05, 2019

NAFCU economist talks recession risks on Yahoo! Finance TV

Joining Yahoo! Finance's premier closing bell show, The Final Round, CapNAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long noted his expectation that a recession is still approximately a year away, but that there are some economic headwinds.

"I think the most recent GDP figures show the household sector is bearing an increasing part of the burden carrying this expansion forward," said Long. "So with some of the risks around it, it wouldn't take too much to tip us into recession."

Long also touched on the Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut, sharing his view that "the move undoes the [central bank's] December rate cut, but going forward the more hawkish members of the Fed will demand data to justify further rate cuts." Long said the July rate cut was "predicated more on feel" as opposed to economic data.

Watch the full interview here.

In recent months, NAFCU has held member meetings with St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard, Boston Federal Reserve Bank President Eric Rosengren and Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari. In addition, the association and its Board of Directors meet annually with the Federal Reserve to present findings from the NAFCU's Annual Report on Credit Unions and to discuss issues critical to the industry. The group met with Federal Reserve Vice Chairman of Supervision Randal Quarles in November; see a recap of the discussion here.