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The Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday issued the November Jobs Report which revealed non-farm payrolls increased by 210,000 during the last month. Of note, prior month job gains were revised upward by a combined 82,000 jobs. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Long analyzed the report in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.

“The November jobs report was a mixed bag and showed a wide disparity between the household and establishment surveys,” said Long. “The household survey--which is the basis for broad employment statistics--showed a huge drop in the unemployment rate from 4.6 percent to 4.2 percent. It also indicated a significant 0.2 percentage point rise in the labor force participation rate.”

Of note, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.2 percent this month, while the labor force participation rate rose to 61.8 percent, which is still well shy of the February 2020 level of 63.3 percent.

“In all, the household survey showed that 1.1 million additional workers were employed in November. But according to the establishment survey - which is regarded as more reliable by many observers - hiring rose by just 210,000 jobs,” stated Long. “The retail trade sector was one of the big losers, dropping by 20,000 payrolls during the month. That result is a head scratcher and is among the reasons why more weight is likely to be placed on the outstanding returns from the household survey this month.”

In addition, results among the major private sector industries were mixed. Professional and business services gained 90,000 jobs, followed by manufacturing and construction gaining 31,000 jobs each. Public sector employment fell by 25,000 jobs, while retail trade lost 20,000. Average hourly earnings rose by 8 cents in November, while year-over-year wage growth was at 4.8 percent.

“Wage growth on a year-over-year basis held steady at 4.8 percent,” concluded Long. “It may take another month to truly determine what happened in November, but this does not change much from the Fed’s standpoint, as they eye liftoff in the first half of 2022.” 

For more up-to-date economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.