Newsroom
NAFCU sees positive signs in 4Q GDP report
NAFCU Staff Economist Curt Long said the government's initial fourth-quarter GDP report contains "a number of positives" about the state of the economy, including continued growth in residential investment and consumer spending.
The report, released Wednesday, showed that fourth-quarter economic activity contracted by 0.1 percent. However, Long said the unexpected decline is unlikely to signal a double-dip recession as it was caused largely by decreases in defense spending and weaker inventory accumulation. Both decreases may prove to be "one-time hits."
Bright spots in the report include residential investment, which expanded 0.4 percent, marking the seventh consecutive quarter that the housing market has contributed to GDP growth. Consumer spending also "held up well in spite of fears over the fiscal cliff," increasing 2.2 percent, Long said. "However, this is on somewhat less-stable footing as consumer confidence has fallen in recent months, and workers are still coming to grips with January's increase in Social Security taxes."
Looking ahead, Long said business inventories should reverse course if consumer spending holds up. Meanwhile, defense spending "may also be a one-time hit if Congress can avoid the sequester spending cuts scheduled to take effect March 1, though there is currently no deal in sight."
Long added that the economy is expected to "muddle through the first half of the year before gathering steam in the second half, but much depends on the policy decisions on Capitol Hill."
- NAFCU Macro Data Flash
Share This
Related Resources
Add to Calendar 2024-05-03 14:00:00 2024-05-03 14:00:00 Plan Sponsor Attitudes Toward Retirement Plan Management and Fiduciary Outsourcing About the Webinar In January 2024, Pentegra conducted a survey of retirement plan sponsors and their perspectives on retirement plan management and fiduciary outsourcing. The survey measured how sponsors are using fiduciary outsourcing to help better manage their retirement plans. It also captured their perspectives on what outsourcing does to help them better position their plans and drive improved retirement plan outcomes. Key Takeaways: What is the full scope of your responsibilities as a plan sponsor? What is fiduciary outsourcing and how does it work? How does fiduciary outsourcing help reduce workloads and minimize risk? How can a credit union best position its plan to drive improved outcomes? Register Here Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Plan Sponsor Attitudes Toward Retirement Plan Management and Fiduciary Outsourcing
preferred partner
Pentegra
Webinar
Ensuring Safety and Soundness with AI
Management, Consumer Lending, FinTech
preferred partner
Upstart
Blog Post
Turning Lemons into Lemonade: Capitalizing in a Post-Banking Crisis Era
Strategy
preferred partner
Allied Solutions
Blog Post
Add to Calendar 2024-05-02 14:00:00 2024-05-02 14:00:00 Mastering Resilience in Incident Response Plans About the Webinar An Incident Response (IR) plan is crucial for guiding credit unions through major incidents efficiently and effectively. However, many IR plans lack resilience, making them less adaptable to the evolving threat landscape. Join us for our webinar Mastering Resilience in Incident Response Plans where DefenseStorm cyber experts Elizabeth Houser and James Bruhl will delve into the importance of resiliency within cybersecurity IR plans. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to learn how to: Ensure IR plan accessibility so that all team members with assigned roles are prepared for effective incident response. Conduct efficient and regular reviews to ensure roles and responsibilities are current, tools are relevant, and compliance requirements are met. Implement and utilize tabletops to regularly test the effectiveness of your IR plan. Enhance preparedness, efficiency, and confidence among responders. View On-Demand Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Mastering Resilience in Incident Response Plans
preferred partner
DefenseStorm
Webinar
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.