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August 26, 2016
NAFCU's Long: September rate hike odds increasing
After an optimistic speech from Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen on Friday, NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long said the odds of a September interest rate hike are improving.
"Yellen's comments were in line with those of other Fed officials who see the economy as drawing nearer to the point that would warrant a rate hike," Long said. "The past two jobs reports have been especially robust, and they along with the minimal immediate impact from Brexit have seemed to allay concerns among a number of Fed officials. The August employment figures take on added importance, particularly for those officials who may be expected to offer resistance to a move in the third quarter.
"The odds still favor a rate hike in Q4, but September is quickly nearing a coin-flip proposition," he continued.
Speaking at the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Yellen said, "In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."
Earlier that week, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the Fed was close to its jobs and inflation targets and San Francisco Fed President John Williams said economic conditions favor gradually moving interest rates "toward more normal levels."
"Yellen's comments were in line with those of other Fed officials who see the economy as drawing nearer to the point that would warrant a rate hike," Long said. "The past two jobs reports have been especially robust, and they along with the minimal immediate impact from Brexit have seemed to allay concerns among a number of Fed officials. The August employment figures take on added importance, particularly for those officials who may be expected to offer resistance to a move in the third quarter.
"The odds still favor a rate hike in Q4, but September is quickly nearing a coin-flip proposition," he continued.
Speaking at the Kansas City Fed's symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Yellen said, "In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months."
Earlier that week, Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the Fed was close to its jobs and inflation targets and San Francisco Fed President John Williams said economic conditions favor gradually moving interest rates "toward more normal levels."
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