Newsroom
Retail sales rise significantly in January, supporting Fed's March liftoff prediction
Total retail sales rose by 3.8 percent in January, following a decline of 2.5 percent in December and a 0.7 percent increase in November. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long analyzed the report in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.
"Retail sales heated back up to a 10-month high in January on a seasonally-adjusted basis," stated Long. “It is important to note that retail sales are reported on a nominal basis, so some of the gains in recent months simply reflect rapidly rising prices rather than increases in quality or quantity."
Many sectors were winners in January, the biggest being nonstore retailers (+14.5 percent), furniture and home fixture stores (+7.2 percent), as well as motor vehicle and parts dealers (+5.7 percent). Losses hit several sectors during the month including sales at sporting goods and hobby stores which fell by 3 percent, followed by gasoline stations (-1.3 percent) and food services & drinking places (-0.9 percent).
"Consumer preference for nonstore retails and avoidance of restaurants can likely be explained by Omicron reaching what experts believe is its peak in January," added Long. "This report is yet another data point that supports the Fed's widely expected announcement of liftoff in March. Financial conditions have already tightened in anticipation of that decision, with no evident harm to the real economy."
Year-over-year growth in retail sales was up 12.7 percent during the month, which is down from 16.8 percent in December. Control group sales – which excludes auto, gas, and building material categories – were up 11.5 percent from a year ago.
“NAFCU expects the Fed will proceed with an aggressive rate hike campaign through June, which includes a 50-basis point hike in March, before slowing to a more gradual pace of rate increases in the latter half of the year,” concluded Long.
For more up-to-date economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.
Share This
Related Resources
Add to Calendar 2024-05-16 14:00:00 2024-05-16 14:00:00 Spotting and Reporting Elder Financial Exploitation Elder financial abuse cases can often be difficult to investigate. Join us in learning more about the evolving red flags associated with this crime as well as the current regulatory landscape. In this webinar, Spotting and Reporting Elder Financial Exploitation, you’ll discover useful insights into performing an elder abuse investigation as well as reporting requirements. At the end, you and your team will feel confident in handling financial exploitation cases. Key Takeaways Identify changing red flags for financial exploitation Locate important resources for your investigations Draft eye-catching SARs Register Now $295 Members | $395 Nonmembers(Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until May 16, 2025Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend NCBSOs NCCOs NCRMs BSA, compliance and risk titles Education Credits NCRMs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCCOs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCBSOs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Spotting and Reporting Elder Financial Exploitation
Credits: NCCO, NCBSO, NCRM
Webinar
Add to Calendar 2024-05-14 14:00:00 2024-05-14 14:00:00 Navigating Fair Lending Compliance: Laws, Best Practices, and Regulatory Guidance Join our impactful webinar, Navigating Fair Lending Compliance: Laws, Best Practices, and Regulatory Guidance. This session is designed to enhance your understanding of federal fair lending and related laws, focusing on their interplay and including key statutes such as the Equal Credit Opportunity Act, the Home Mortgage Disclosure Act, and the Fair Credit Reporting Act. You’ll also delve into practical guidance and best practices to ensure your institution adheres to regulatory expectations and offers products and services in a fair and non-discriminatory manner. Key Takeaways Understand and identify various forms of discrimination in lending practices Review and interpret guidance from regulators to improve compliance strategies Get up to speed with the latest updates, including the new Regulation B rule on small business lending Register Now $295 Members | $395 Nonmembers(Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until May 14, 2025Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend NCCOs NCRMs Compliance and risk titles Education Credits NCRMs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCCOs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Navigating Fair Lending Compliance: Laws, Best Practices, and Regulatory Guidance
Credits: NCCO, NCBSO, NCRM, NCVE
Webinar
Add to Calendar 2024-05-13 09:00:00 2024-05-13 09:00:00 Covering Your Assets- The Bottom Line on Tracking and Collateral Protection Listen On: Key Takeaways: [04:23] Having access to policy and claim information is vitally important so you can mitigate your risks in that area. [06:39] Members are shopping and changing their insurance more than ever before. 41% of households with car insurance shopped for coverage at least once in the last 12 months. [10:05] One of the leading indicators of a default or a repossession situation is the dropping of insurance. [12:49] The most important thing from a tracking and risk management perspective is to make sure that the borrower lists the credit union as a lienholder. Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Covering Your Assets- The Bottom Line on Tracking and Collateral Protection
Strategy & Growth, Consumer Lending
preferred partner
Allied Solutions
Podcast
Add to Calendar 2024-05-07 14:00:00 2024-05-07 14:00:00 BSA Training for the Board of Directors This webinar, BSA Training for the Board of Directors provides vital training with a comprehensive overview of the Bank Secrecy Act (BSA), anti-money laundering (AML) and combatting the financing of terrorism (CFT) compliance requirements. You’ll explore the ramifications of non-compliance and gain insights into the expectations and requirements set forth by the National Credit Union Administration (NCUA). This includes discovering how board engagement plays a pivotal role in fostering a robust BSA/AML compliance program within your credit union. Don’t miss this opportunity to equip your board with the knowledge and insights needed to navigate the regulatory landscape effectively. Key Takeaways Identify BSA/AML compliance requirements Review board member duties as it relates to BSA/AML compliance Examine current regulatory actions that may impact your credit union Register Now $295 Members | $395 Nonmembers(Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until May 2, 2025Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend Board members Board chairs and vice chairs Supervisory committee members Presidents/CEOs Executive assistants Education Credits NCRMs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCCOs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCBSOs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar NCVEs will recieve 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
BSA Training for the Board of Directors
Credits: NCCO, NCBSO, NCRM, NCVE
Webinar
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.