Newsroom
GDP rises in the third quarter
The Commerce Department released its advanced estimate of economic activity Thursday, revealing the U.S. economy grew 2.6 percent – in terms of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – in the third quarter. NAFCU Vice President of Research and Chief Economist Curt Long analyzed the data in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.
According to the estimate, the rise in real GDP was mainly driven by net exports, which rose 2.77 percentage points, followed by personal consumption (+0.97 percentage points). This was partially offset by declines in residential investment (-1.37 percentage points) and the change in private inventories (-0.7 percentage points).
"While net exports was a drag on GDP over the first half of the year, it is now keeping GDP afloat," Long said. “Residential investment took a nosedive as builders reacted to skyrocketing mortgage rates.
“The labor market remains tight, helping to maintain consumption,” added Long. “However, consumers are leaning ever more on credit, and inflation continues to outpace wage growth.”
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, fell to 4.2 percent. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) fell to 4.5 percent.
“Overall, this was exactly the type of report the Federal Reserve is looking for,” said Long. “Rate-sensitive areas are responding to tightening monetary policy, but the rest of the economy is moderating more slowly.
“It is still too early for the FOMC to think about a pivot, but after next week’s 75-basis point hike, this report would support a mild step down to a 50-point increase in December,” concluded Long.
For more economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view all of NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.
Share This
Related Resources
Add to Calendar 2024-05-03 14:00:00 2024-05-03 14:00:00 Plan Sponsor Attitudes Toward Retirement Plan Management and Fiduciary Outsourcing About the Webinar In January 2024, Pentegra conducted a survey of retirement plan sponsors and their perspectives on retirement plan management and fiduciary outsourcing. The survey measured how sponsors are using fiduciary outsourcing to help better manage their retirement plans. It also captured their perspectives on what outsourcing does to help them better position their plans and drive improved retirement plan outcomes. Key Takeaways: What is the full scope of your responsibilities as a plan sponsor? What is fiduciary outsourcing and how does it work? How does fiduciary outsourcing help reduce workloads and minimize risk? How can a credit union best position its plan to drive improved outcomes? Register Here Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Plan Sponsor Attitudes Toward Retirement Plan Management and Fiduciary Outsourcing
preferred partner
Pentegra
Webinar
Ensuring Safety and Soundness with AI
Management, Consumer Lending, FinTech
preferred partner
Upstart
Blog Post
Turning Lemons into Lemonade: Capitalizing in a Post-Banking Crisis Era
Strategy
preferred partner
Allied Solutions
Blog Post
Add to Calendar 2024-05-02 14:00:00 2024-05-02 14:00:00 Mastering Resilience in Incident Response Plans About the Webinar An Incident Response (IR) plan is crucial for guiding credit unions through major incidents efficiently and effectively. However, many IR plans lack resilience, making them less adaptable to the evolving threat landscape. Join us for our webinar Mastering Resilience in Incident Response Plans where DefenseStorm cyber experts Elizabeth Houser and James Bruhl will delve into the importance of resiliency within cybersecurity IR plans. Don’t miss out on the opportunity to learn how to: Ensure IR plan accessibility so that all team members with assigned roles are prepared for effective incident response. Conduct efficient and regular reviews to ensure roles and responsibilities are current, tools are relevant, and compliance requirements are met. Implement and utilize tabletops to regularly test the effectiveness of your IR plan. Enhance preparedness, efficiency, and confidence among responders. View On-Demand Web NAFCU digital@nafcu.org America/New_York public
Mastering Resilience in Incident Response Plans
preferred partner
DefenseStorm
Webinar
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.