Newsroom
July 19, 2016
WSJ: Some at Fed see September rate hike
Some Federal Reserve officials believe an interest rate increase is possible as early as September, according to The Wall Street Journal.
The Journal cited the stabilization of markets after the upheaval of the U.K. Brexit vote and a positive June jobs report as reasons some Fed officials are feeling more optimistic.
"Many Fed officials have said they can be patient before raising rates again, meaning a July move is highly unlikely," the paper wrote. "But new rounds of strong economic data – particularly on hiring or an uptick in inflation – could increase their sense of urgency in the months after their meeting next week."
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long noted that more delays are still possible.
"We have seen Fed officials lay the groundwork for a rate hike before, only to back off when events like China devaluing its currency or Brexit led to market disruptions," Long said. "While a number of economic headwinds have abated recently and certain officials are undoubtedly considering a rate hike as early as September, one gets the sense that even the slightest wobble between now and then would be enough to justify a delay.
"With that in mind, December still looks to be the most likely target if the Fed does indeed raise rates this year," he continued.
Long also noted that futures company CME Group's assessment of the likelihood of a rate hike in September stands at 18 percent; it cites a 45 percent likelihood of a December increase.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart recently noted that he "wouldn't rule out as many as two" rate hikes this year.
The Journal cited the stabilization of markets after the upheaval of the U.K. Brexit vote and a positive June jobs report as reasons some Fed officials are feeling more optimistic.
"Many Fed officials have said they can be patient before raising rates again, meaning a July move is highly unlikely," the paper wrote. "But new rounds of strong economic data – particularly on hiring or an uptick in inflation – could increase their sense of urgency in the months after their meeting next week."
NAFCU Chief Economist and Director of Research Curt Long noted that more delays are still possible.
"We have seen Fed officials lay the groundwork for a rate hike before, only to back off when events like China devaluing its currency or Brexit led to market disruptions," Long said. "While a number of economic headwinds have abated recently and certain officials are undoubtedly considering a rate hike as early as September, one gets the sense that even the slightest wobble between now and then would be enough to justify a delay.
"With that in mind, December still looks to be the most likely target if the Fed does indeed raise rates this year," he continued.
Long also noted that futures company CME Group's assessment of the likelihood of a rate hike in September stands at 18 percent; it cites a 45 percent likelihood of a December increase.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart recently noted that he "wouldn't rule out as many as two" rate hikes this year.
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