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Economy sees fastest growth since 2014 in Q2
The U.S. economy grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter – the fastest pace in nearly four years – according to the Commerce Department's initial estimate released Friday. NAFCU Research Assistant Yun Cohen said consumer spending, which saw its largest gain since the final quarter of 2014, boosted the growth.
"Consumer spending rebounded strongly after a slow start to the year, supported by a strong labor market and stimulative tax cuts," Cohen said in a NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "… Looking ahead, economic growth is expected to remain strong for the rest of 2018. The pace of expansion, however, will likely decelerate as the effects of tax cuts fade and as the Fed raises rates further."
The first quarter saw growth of 2.2 percent.
Contributions to growth of real GDP came from gains in personal consumption expenditures (+2.69 percent), net exports (+1.06 percent), nonresidential investment (+0.98 percent) and government spending (+0.37 percent). Inventory investment and residential investment dragged growth by 1 percent and 0.04 percent, respectively.
"Net exports rose markedly, partially due to a surge in soybean trade in advance of the retaliatory tariffs," Cohen said. "The front-loading of soybeans and other products also contributed to a reduction of inventory accumulations. Business investment remained strong while residential investment fell for the second straight quarter."
Personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, decreased from 2.5 percent in the first quarter to 1.8 percent in the second. Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) decreased from a downwardly-revised 2.2 percent in the first quarter to 2 percent in the second quarter.
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