February jobs report could lessen next rate hike, says NAFCU Chief Economist
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) issued the latest jobs report Friday, which revealed that the unemployment rate rose to 3.6 percent in February. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long noted the report “was a positive one overall.”
“Although the unemployment rate rose, job gains were strong and labor force participation grew signaling Main Street’s optimism in hiring,” Long said. "The bigger news was the lowest month-over-month gain in average hourly wages in a year," added Long. "That result, paired with a downtick in average hours worked, throws some doubt into the FOMC’s March decision. Although a 50-basis point hike is still on the table, this report is more supportive of a quarter-point increase."
Long sat down with CUBroadcast host Mike Lawson to discuss the latest figures noting that the labor force participation rate ticked up in February marking the "third straight month participation has improved and is back to the highest point it's been since March 2020."
Of note, Long provided additional insights into the report in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. Non-farm payrolls increased 311,000 last month. In addition, January payrolls were revised down 13,000, while December saw a -21,000 revision.
Results among major private sector industries were mostly mixed. The biggest winner was leisure and hospitality (+105,000), followed by education and health (+74,000), and retail trade (+50,000). Industries that lost jobs were the information sector (-25,000) and transportation and warehousing (-22,000).
The labor force participation rate rose 0.1 percent and the average hourly earnings grew 8 cents in February
Of note, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testified before Congress last week and reiterated the Fed’s commitment to returning inflation to its 2 percent goal, while promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Long said Powell’s “hawkish” testimony to the Senate Banking Committee indicated “a 50-basis point hike in March…became the odds-on outcome.”
For more economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.
Tie-Breaker Ideas for Director Elections
Board and Governance
Add to Calendar 2023-06-06 14:00:00 2023-06-06 14:00:00 Avoiding and Resolving Harassment Claims: A Primer for Board Members The #me-too movement may have receded from the front of public consciousness, but the need to prevent and resolve harassment claims remains a key function for any employer. As community-oriented organizations, credit unions more than most feel a responsibility for the well-being of their members, employees and volunteers. This webinar, Avoiding and Resolving Harassment Claims: A Primer for Board Members provides both an introduction to the subject for board members, as well as selected deep dives on particular issues of interest to credit union volunteer boards. Key Takeaways Learn to identify the hallmarks of a situation in which it is appropriate for the board to become involved, as opposed to permitting effective resolution through normal human resources procedures Recognize the breadth of current law governing harassment claims, including newly prominent protected categories, the nature and severity of conduct which may constitute harassment, and the fact that conduct that may not rise to the level of a state or federal law civil rights violation may still violate the credit union’s own internal policies, procedures, and ideals, and be subject to appropriate discipline and remedial action Discover appropriate oversight roles for board officers, committee members including supervisory committee members, and other Board members, particularly in the context of passing along a report or complaint of harassment or inappropriate conduct Register Now$295 Members | $395 Nonmembers (Additional $50 for USB)One registration gives your entire team access to the live webinar and on-demand recording until June 6, 2024.Go to the Online Training Center to access the webinar after purchase » Who Should Attend Board of director titles NCVEs and volunteer titles HR titles Education Credits NCVEs will receive 1.0 CEUs for participating in this webinar Web NAFCU email@example.com America/New_York public
Avoiding and Resolving Harassment Claims: A Primer for Board Members
Add to Calendar 2023-06-06 09:00:00 2023-06-06 09:00:00 Fighting Fraud: The Role of Fraud Fusion Centers Listen On: Key Takeaways: [00:56] The concept of a Fraud Fusion Center is a collaboration among professional fraud fighters. Anyone that has been doing this for a while forms a network of trusted advisors and we all go to each other anytime we come across some new or complex case. [02:50] Scams have always been around but the emergence of AI has made them far more sophisticated than we have ever seen before. [05:55] Person-to-person payment apps like Zelle, Venmo, and CashApp are not protected like debit and credit cards. [08:30] Every single time that new technology comes out that makes our lives better, fraudsters will find a way to exploit it. The current state of cyber fraud points credit unions in a lose-lose situation. [20:04] By identifying the information at one credit union and getting it out to others they are getting ahead of these threats. [22:19] Fraud Fusion Centers are critical. Formalize it and make it happen. Web NAFCU firstname.lastname@example.org America/New_York public
Fighting Fraud: The Role of Fraud Fusion Centers
Security, Fraud, Risk Management
The CFPB Announces Final Judgement Against Bank for Regulation Z Violations
Board and Governance
Get daily updates.
Subscribe to NAFCU today.