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January consumer prices unchanged; Fed hesitant on future rate hikes
Consumer prices saw no change in January as inflationary pressures continued to recede. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long said that a lack of price growth supports a pause in interest rate increases for the time being.
According to data published Wednesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the overall CPI decelerated to 1.5 percent over the 12-month period.
"Core price growth remains steady, but lower gas prices are dragging down headline inflation," Long said in a Macro Data Flash report. "The Fed has signaled that it will be patient with future rate hikes. The appearance of inflationary pressures would test that resolve, but so far there have been no indications that price growth will increase much beyond the Fed's two percent target.
"Following the most recent FOMC meeting, Chairman [Jerome] Powell stated that he would need to see evidence of firming inflation before considering another rate increase. If there is to be a rate hike in 2019, it will likely come in the second half of the year," Long added.
Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) increased 0.2 percent in January compared to the previous month. Year-over-year core CPI growth dipped slightly to 2.1 percent.
Energy prices declined 3.1 percent in January following a 2.6 percent decrease in December. From a year ago, energy prices were down 4.9 percent. Food prices rose 0.2 percent in January. On a year-over-year basis, food prices were up 1.6 percent.