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January 27, 2023

Latest GDP mostly ‘positive’ says NAFCU Chief Economist 

Data Flash

The Commerce Department released its advanced estimate of economic activity Thursday, revealing the U.S. economy grew 2.9 percent – in terms of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – in the final quarter of 2022. NAFCU Vice President of Research and Chief Economist Curt Long analyzed the data in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report and shared insights with CNBC.

According to the estimate, the rise in real GDP was mainly driven by change in private inventories, which rose 1.46 percentage points, followed by personal consumption (+1.42 percentage points.) This was partially offset by residential investment declines (-1.29 percentage points).

"The big picture view of economic growth in the fourth quarter is a positive one," Long told CNBC. “Much of that growth was concentrated in inventory build, which is unlikely to grow at a similar pace in 2023. Nevertheless, with resilient consumer spending, low unemployment claims, and receding inflation, some of the clouds that were forming over the economy several months ago are beginning to clear.”

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, fell to 3.2 percent. Meanwhile, core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) fell to 3.9 percent.    

For more economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view all of NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.