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On a seasonally-adjusted basis, overall consumer prices rose 0.1 percent in November, with the overall consumer price index (CPI) falling to 3.1 percent year-over-year. NAFCU Vice President of Research and Chief Economist Curt Long analyzed the data in a new Macro Data Flash report.

“November inflation data came in slightly above expectations but remained in a downward trend,” said Long. “On a year-over-year basis, core CPI growth dropped to 4 percent, the slowest growth rate since August 2021. Areas that surprised to the upside included shelter and used cars, but those should be one-offs as private data on apartment rents and wholesale vehicle prices suggest that further disinflation is in store. Used car prices increased by 1.6 percent, breaking a string of five consecutive months of price declines. New vehicle prices fell for the second straight month. Clothing prices are trending down sharply; besides the first months of COVID-19, the 1.3 percent decline in November was the largest monthly drop since 2018.”

Core prices (excluding food and energy costs) rose 0.2 percent last month. Year-over-year core CPI growth was 4 percent. Energy prices decreased 2.3 percent during the month. From a year ago, energy prices were down 5.4 percent. Food prices rose 0.2 in November and were up 3 percent over the year.

“NAFCU still expects that the FOMC is done hiking rates, and that the first rate cut will come in the second quarter of 2024," Long concluded.

For more up-to-date economic insights from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU’s Macro Data Flash reports.