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Q3 GDP unchanged in final estimate; NAFCU predicts similar growth in 2020
According to the Commerce Department's final estimate, the U.S. economy grew 2.1 percent in the third quarter, remaining unchanged from the second estimate. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long noted the new estimate indicates a slight pickup from the second quarter, with upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures and nonresidential investment offset by a downward revision to private inventories.
"The biggest downside risks remain the trade war and slowing global growth," said Long in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Industrial activity is still weak, but the rest of the economy looks solid. The labor market is strong and tightening further, and consumers are spending at a steady pace.
"The road ahead will continue to be volatile, and the next downturn may only be a headline away, but for now the economic picture has cleared up since the anxiety-filled summer months," Long added. "Real GDP growth has been close to 2 percent for nearly the entire duration of the recovery, and NAFCU expects something similar in 2020."
Contributions of growth of real GDP came from gains in consumption (+2.1 percent), government spending (+0.3 percent), and residential investment (+0.2 percent). Net exports reduced growth 0.1 percent, as did nonresidential investments (-0.3 percent).
PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred inflation metric, decreased from 2.4 percent in the second quarter to 1.4 percent in the third quarter. However, core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) increased from 1.9 percent to 2.1 percent over that time, a downward revision of 0.1 percent.
Also of note, corporate profits declined 0.6 percent in the third quarter, a sharp decline from the second quarter. Gross domestic income – an alternative measure often compared to GDP growth – rose 2.1 percent, up from 0.9 percent in the previous period.