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Retail sales plummet; NAFCU's Long suggests robust recovery unlikely
"The first full month of nationwide stay-at-home orders was catastrophic for retail sales," said NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. Total retail sales plummeted 16.4 percent during the month, following March's revised 8.3 percent fall.
"[T]he decline in April doubled the previous record for a single-month sales decline, set in March," Long noted. "With states beginning to reopen, sales levels should start to stabilize in May. But a robust recovery is unlikely with tens of millions out of work and plummeting consumer confidence.
“NAFCU expects a long, slow recovery,” he concluded.
Year-over-year retail sales were down 21.6 percent in April, following March's year-over-year sales’ 5.9 percent drop. Control group sales, which excludes the auto, gas, and building materials categories, were down 17.4 percent in April.
"The major retail segments were in freefall, though mostly discretionary spending," Long said, with significant drops among the clothing sector (-78.8 percent), electronics sector (-60.6 percent), and furniture stores (-58.7 percent).
The only increase was in nonstore retailers (i.e. online), which rose 8.4 percent.
For more on April's retail sales, view the data flash. NAFCU's Research Team publishes up-to-date economic data regularly with summary analysis illustrating the most recent trends that impact credit unions.