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Retail sales see no change in September
Total retail sales saw no change in September following an increase of 0.4 percent in August. NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long analyzed the report in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report.
“Retail sales were flat in September. The series is not adjusted for inflation, so spending declined in real terms,” said Long. “Sales declines were broad during the month, hitting many sectors.
“However, the areas of the economy that are particularly hampered right now were among the biggest losers: sales at auto dealers fell 0.6 percent and home furnishings fell 0.7 percent,” added Long.
Sectoral performance was mixed in September. General merchandise stores saw the biggest increase with 0.7 percent growth in sales, growth last month was equally offset by declines. Miscellaneous store retailers, however, saw the biggest decline (-2.5 percent).
Year-over-year growth in retail sales were up 8.2 percent in September. Control group sales – which excludes auto gas, and building material categories – were up 7.7 percent from a year ago.
“Gas station sales dropped again on the month, but that may reverse course in October as gas prices have risen for three consecutive weeks,” noted Long. “As the price of oil has declined, so too have sales at gas stations.”
“Retail sales data primarily capture spending in the goods sector and may miss the effect of consumers rotating back to services,” added Long. “The decline in retail sales suggests slowing consumption overall, but it is also impacted by consumers’ turn from goods (which is captured in retail sales) back to services (which is largely not).”
“NAFCU continues to expect a 75-point increase from the Fed in November,” concluded Long.
For more up-to-date economic updates from NAFCU's award-winning research team, view NAFCU's Macro Data Flash reports.