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Retail sales see decline in May; NAFCU expects retail sales to remain strong through 2021
Total retail sales declined 1.3 percent in May following April's modest, upwardly revised rise. The March number was further upwardly revised to a 11.3 percent rise. 
"Retail sales declined in May following two months of strong sales," highlighted NAFCU Chief Economist and Vice President of Research Curt Long in a new NAFCU Macro Data Flash report. "Sales still remain at a high level due to general economic improvement and some lingering stimulus – the total value of retail sales in May was up 18 percent versus February 2020.”
"What we are seeing now is consumers shifting away from goods and back to services now that most of the country is substantially reopened," added Long. "One of the biggest declines during the month was in autos, where supply issues are holding back sales."
Year-over-year, sales were up 28.1 percent in May, which is down from +53.4 percent in April. Control group sales were up 25.5 percent from a year ago.
Results within sectors were mostly negative during the month. The clothing sector rose 3 percent while the health and personal care sector and food service sector both rose 1.8 percent. The largest drops were in building material stores (-5.9 percent), miscellaneous stores (-5 percent), motor vehicle and parts dealers (- 3.7 percent), and electronics and appliance stores (-3.4 percent).
"NAFCU expects retail sales to remain strong through 2021, albeit it with some potential volatility due to the rotation back to services, various supply chain issues, and pockets of high inflation,” Long concluded.